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Ashutosh Paibhale, the Founder and Managing Director of PredictKar and one of the most educated analysts in India, recently broke down some auction strategies and unique methods to predict a player's performance graphs in a candid interview.
Paibhale explained the evolution of the sport in recent years, especially with the introduction of shorter formats like T20 and T10 giving a fair chance for any team to beat the other on a given day.
"Firstly, let us understand the evolution of cricket. With the changing times, the advent of technology, and shorter formats like the T20 and T10, it has become a level playing field. "Anybody can beat anybody on a given day.
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So the strategy aspect and the nuance become even more important. And lastly, the franchise, where players are bought and sold in an auction draft format. So the actual battle is fought in the war [auction] room and not on the cricket field [these days]. So with the changing times, the evolutions, the skillset required are also different," he said in an interview with Know Your Cricket. Paibhale also explained the difference between the roles of an analyst and the different coaches in cricket, describing the latter as technical experts."The coaches are technical experts.
A batting coach will tell you about the head position, knee position, the elbow position. A bowling coach will tell you about the wrist position, the seam position. I'm not an expert at that. But considering a player's skill set, his age, his nationality, his brand, his fitness. Whom to pick? And more importantly, in what price range or in what price? And more importantly, whom not to pick is my skillset," Paibhale explained.
What is the Game Time Hypothesis?
Paibhale was asked whether he had any specific theory while suggesting players to franchises at the auctions. The Mumbaikar went on to explain a very interesting methodology known as the Game Time Hypothesis."The theory that I consider in the auction or the draft is called the Game Time Hypothesis i.e. higher the involvement of a player in a particular game, the more preference for such players. The batsman who will bat in the top three can account for nearly 120 balls.
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Each batsman can play as high as 70 balls in a particular game. So that is 50-60% of an innings. If they can bowl, it's an additional skill, depending on the number of bowling overs they bowl. Their game time increases. Batting all-rounders who can bowl four overs and can bat in the top three, have the highest GT (game time)," Paibhale said."
"All bowlers bowl four overs. So all bowlers have a game time of 20%. And assuming the bowling that bowling skill is the same, we see the batting position. So a No. 7 bowling all-rounder will have the highest game time among all bowlers, followed by all the bowlers in the batting order. We are assuming that their bowling skills are the same. So first, the batting all-rounders who are batting in the top three, followed by the bowling all-rounders, and lastly, pure batsmen batting at No. 4 to No. 6, in that order. This is with respect to a particular game and can be expanded to entire series as well," he continued.
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Paibhale also explained why injury-prone players are a strict no-no for him as he spoke about the importance of longevity."Perennially injured players like Deepak Chahr, Mark Wood, and Reece Topley, there are many. They are a big no-no for me. Because longevity is the key. So game time within a game and game time over the entire duration of a series (matters). And could be expanded to a career as well. So greater the longevity, the greater the game time.
Greater the game time, the greater is the chance to succeed."We can draw a parallel with the likes of (Sachin) Tendulkar, (Rahul) Dravid. In their entire career, they would have succeeded about 28% time. But the longevity was such that they are among the most successful careers. So factoring the skill and game time over a game, series, and career is the game time hypothesis," he added.
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